NFL: Holding Out
This NFL off-season & regular season has been plagued with many different star players deciding to “hold out” in search of bigger/better contracts from their respective teams. While this has been going on for years, it has never been this many players in their prime holding out at once. The question is, does holding outdo anything, and who has the most leverage in the situation? It depends on the case and the circumstances. For example, look at Julio Jones and Khalil Mack. Both the best at their positions currently, and both held out during the preseason. In Khalil Mack’s instance, he had been one of if not the best pass rushers in the league the past few years (last year of his deal). Even then, he could not get the Oakland (Las Vegas) Raiders to commit to offering him a more significant contract with more guaranteed money. He held out and got traded to the Chicago Bears and got the deal he wanted.
Julio Jones, who is also arguably the best at his position (wide receiver), wanted a new deal but was not in the final year of his contract. He already renegotiated a new deal with the Atlanta Falcons in 2015. The contract was $71.25 million over the deal's life, with $47.5 million of that guaranteed. One would think that with three years left on his contract that he would not have leverage, but he ended up with a newer (restructured) deal.
It sounds like the players have all the leverage, right? Not necessarily…
Le’Veon Bell has been one of the league’s best running backs over the past few years with a usage rate that has been through the roof. Last year alone, Bell led the NFL in carries with 321 and overall touches with 406. No other player came close to approaching his workload, as Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy was second in league with 346 touches. Even still, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not honored Le’Veons contract demands and have franchise tagged him the last two years. One may say, with the franchise tag, he is getting $14.544 million; that’s the issue. Le’Veon’s rebuttal is that he wants a contract with the right dollar amount along with job security. In a league where the risk of getting injured is so high, one should understand why he would want job security. A prime example of this would be Earl Thomas.
Earl Thomas, the Super Bowl champion and all-pro safety from the Seattle Seahawks, was in the same position. In the final year of his contract, he felt that he had outplayed the contract (he did) and wanted to renegotiate. The issues with his contract originally began last year but heightened this year once he decided to sit out all the preseason. However, he finally ended his holdout at the start of the regular season, as it would not be in his best interest financially to sit out ($500,000 in weekly game checks).
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Unfortunately for him, in the fourth game of the season (after being rated the top defensive player over the first three games), Thomas suffered a lower leg fracture considered season-ending.
This is why the players holdout. It is not ideal, but in this instance, he may (or may not) have just lost millions of dollars.
Update
As of Tuesday, Nov. 14th, 2018, Le’Veon Bell has been ruled ineligible for the rest of the 2018 NFL Season for not signing his franchise tag tender.
With this coming into effect, does this mean that he won or lost? Unfortunately, there’s no way to really gauge whether this was the right decision or not until next season when he receives a new contract. On the one hand, he made it through his “contract year” uninjured and has the opportunity to maximize his dollar amount (longevity and guaranteed money). On the other hand, he may have shot himself in the foot because, judging by his replacement, James Connor, he may just as easily be replaceable. James Connor is ranked third in the league for rushing yards, behind only Ezekiel Elliot and Todd Gurley. He’s been putting up exceptional numbers (also similar) at a substantially lower price.
Honestly, even with James Connor’s production sabotaging the effectiveness of Le’Veon’s hold out, he had a point.
The data shows that, while running backs have the 4th highest injury risk percentage, they also have the second-highest percentage of serious injuries (take longer than 4 weeks to heal). So, while considering this, we can see that Le’Veon Bell had a point. For instance, without a contract with guaranteed money and longevity, he would be putting himself at a huge financial risk. He could easily blow his knee out, and that could be the end of his career (money-wise). Not only that, Le’Veon is 26 years old, which is towards the end of running backs “prime.” In research conducted by ESPN, they’ve found that the production for a running back begins to decline at the age of 27 (last highly productive year).
With that being said, do you agree or disagree with Bell’s decision and why?